空间相互作用模型中的目的地竞争效应 ——基于中国城市间铁路客流数据的实证研究   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

陶卓霖  戴特奇  郑清菁  梁进社 《地理科学》2017,37(2):181-189

目的地竞争模型是空间相互作用领域的重要进展之一,但其有效性尚未得到一致认可,且缺乏基于中国的实证依据。基于中国2010年城市间铁路客流数据,采用目的地竞争模型进行实证分析,并与传统空间相互作用模型相比较,以检验目的地竞争模型在实际应用中的有效性。结果表明：① 空间结构对中国城市间铁路客流存在显著影响,目的地之间存在较强的竞争效应;② 目的地竞争模型的引入显著地减弱了距离衰减参数的空间自相关程度,较大程度上改善了传统空间相互作用模型的距离衰减参数标定偏误问题;③ 既有研究中在区域尺度下对传统空间相互作用模型（即重力模型）参数的标定及实证分析可能会存在偏误,目的地竞争模型这一改进模型具备应用价值。  相似文献   

干旱灾害和我国西北干旱气候的研究进展及问题   总被引：72，自引：4，他引：72  

钱正安  吴统文  宋敏红  马晓波  蔡英  梁潇云 《地球科学进展》2001,16(1):28-38

首先阐述了自然灾害中干旱灾害的严重性和复杂性；接着从西北干旱气候的时空分布特征、形成原因、干旱气候的比较以及监测和预测等方面回顾了近20年来我国西北干旱气候研究的进展；最后提出了西北干旱气候待研究的问题。  相似文献   

基于消费责任制的碳排放核算及全球环境压力   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

钟章奇  姜磊  何凌云  王铮  柏玲 《地理学报》2018,73(3):442-459

因区域间贸易而转移的碳排放对于全球各个国家或者地区的碳排放核算及其减排责任划分具有重要而深远的影响。通过构建多区域投入产出分析模型和基于扩展的STIRPAT模型,本文核算了全球39个主要国家基于消费责任制的碳排放,并在此基础上深入探讨了全球环境压力的影响因素问题。研究发现：首先,从以净流出为主的中国和俄罗斯来看,尽管贸易给这些地区带来了大量的资源,但随之会产生严重的区域生态环境问题。而对于美国和欧盟等地区来说,这些国家或者地区通过全球贸易规避了大量的碳减排责任。此外,在全球贸易中,区域净流出的贸易隐含碳排放越小,基于消费责任制核算的区域碳排放量就越大,故而在全球减排目标分配中承担的减排任务也需相应地增加。全球贸易隐含碳排放净流出量较大的地区主要位于亚洲和东欧等地,而净流出量最小的地区主要是以西欧和北美等高度发达的经济体为主。其次,就基于消费责任制核算下的全球环境压力而言,人口因素和富裕程度是导致全球环境压力不断增加的两个重要因素,而提高生产技术水平以及逐渐提高清洁能源在总能源消费中的比重是推动全球节能减排、缓解全球环境压力的有效途径。  相似文献   

Regional differentiation of ecological conservation and its zonal suitability at the county level in China   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Lin Huang  Yuhan Zheng  Tong Xiao 《地理学报(英文版)》2018,28(1):46-58

China’s investments, financial incentives and deductions in terms of ecological conservation are based at the county level. Therefore, the monitoring and assessment of the effects of ecological conservation at the county level is important to provide a scientific basis for the assessment of the ecological and environmental quality at the county scale. This paper quantitatively estimated the dynamics of high-quality ecosystems and vegetation coverage over the past 15 years, and their relationships with the number of ecological conservation programs at the county level were analyzed. Then, the effects of ecological conservation measures on ecological changes at the county level and their regional suitability were assessed and discussed. The results showed that counties with a percentage of high-quality ecosystems greater than 50% were primarily distributed in northeastern China, southern subtropical China and the southeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and those with a percentage lower than 20% were mostly distributed in northwestern China, the southwestern karst region and the North China Plain. In recent decades, ecological conservation has focused on ecologically fragile regions; more than five ecological conservation programs have been implemented in most counties of the Three River Source Region in Qinghai Province, southeastern Tibet, western Sichuan, the Qilian Mountains, southern Xinjiang and other western regions, while only one or zero have been implemented in the eastern coastal area of China. Over the past 15 years, the proportional area of high-quality ecosystems has increased in approximately 53% of counties. The vegetation coverage of counties in the Loess Plateau, Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (Jing-Jin-Ji), Sichuan-Guizhou-Chongqing, and Guangdong-Guangxi provincial-level areas has increased significantly. However, it decreased in northern Xinjiang, central Tibet, central and eastern Inner Mongolia, the Yangtze River Delta and other regions. The relationships between the numbers of ecological conservation programs and the indicators of ecosystem restoration response, such as high-quality ecosystem and vegetation coverage, do not show positive correlations. These results suggest that ecological conservation programs should be planned and implemented according to the distribution patterns of high-quality ecosystems and that restoration measures such as afforestation should follow natural principles and regional differentiation under the background of climate change.  相似文献   

Impact of soil moisture and winter wheat height from the Loess Plateau in Northwest China on surface spectral albedo     

Zhenchao?Li  Jiaxi?Yang  Xiaoqing?Gao  Zhiyuan?Zheng  Ye?Yu  Xuhong?Hou  Zhigang?WeiEmail author 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2018,131(3-4):857-864

The understanding of surface spectral radiation and reflected radiation characteristics of different surfaces in different climate zones aids in the interpretation of regional surface energy transfers and the development of land surface models. This study analysed surface spectral radiation variations and corresponding surface albedo characteristics at different wavelengths as well as the relationship between 5-cm soil moisture and surface albedo on typical sunny days during the winter wheat growth period. The analysis was conducted using observational Loess Plateau winter wheat data from 2015. The results show that the ratio of atmospheric downward radiation to global radiation on typical sunny days is highest for near-infrared wavelengths, followed by visible wavelengths and ultraviolet wavelengths, with values of 57.3, 38.7 and 4.0%, respectively. The ratio of reflected spectral radiation to global radiation varies based on land surface type. The visible radiation reflected by vegetated surfaces is far less than that reflected by bare ground, with surface albedos of 0.045 and 0.27, respectively. Thus, vegetated surfaces absorb more visible radiation than bare ground. The atmospheric downward spectral radiation to global radiation diurnal variation ratios vary for near-infrared wavelengths versus visible and ultraviolet wavelengths on typical sunny days. The near-infrared wavelengths ratio is higher in the morning and evening and lower at noon. The visible and ultraviolet wavelengths ratios are lower in the morning and evening and higher at noon. Visible and ultraviolet wavelength surface albedo is affected by 5-cm soil moisture, demonstrating a significant negative correlation. Excluding near-infrared wavelengths, correlations between surface albedo and 5-cm soil moisture pass the 99% confidence test at each wavelength. The correlation with 5-cm soil moisture is more significant at shorter wavelengths. However, this study obtained surface spectral radiation characteristics that were affected by land surface vegetation coverage as well as by soil physical properties.  相似文献   

GPM/DPR雷达与CINRAD雷达降水探测对比          下载免费PDF全文

刘晓阳  李郝  何平  李丹杨  郑媛媛 《应用气象学报》2018,29(6):667-679

通过对比星载DPR雷达与地基CINRAD雷达的降雨测量值,评估星地雷达联合应用的潜力。为了提高对比的准确性,在尽可能高的时空分辨率下,以几何匹配与格点匹配相结合的方式,提取星地雷达降水样本数据。2015年6月30日降水过程的对比分析结果表明:泰州、常州CINRAD雷达反射率因子在两站中分剖面的平均值偏差0.94 dB,地基雷达之间有很好的一致性;在DPR雷达与常州、泰州CINRAD雷达同时覆盖的降雨区域,星地之间雷达反射率因子的平均值偏差分别为-1.2 dB和-1.6 dB,显示星地雷达也有较好的一致性;现有DPR雷达陆上衰减订正算法在缩小星地雷达偏差方面起到一定作用,平均订正量0.4 dB,只要回波覆盖充分,匹配样本的高度以及其到地基雷达的距离对对比结果没有明显影响,而衰减订正和匹配样本区回波覆盖率是影响星地雷达对比结果的重要因素。  相似文献   

“丝绸之路”模态与东亚夏季环流的关系分析     

李艳  张英华  郑凤魁  袁有林 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2018,12(3):10-17

基于1979—2015年ERA-Interim再分析资料,分析了夏季"丝绸之路"(the Silk Road,即SR)模态与东亚地区大气环流之间的联系,结果表明:在SR模态正异常年,200 hPa亚洲急流在东亚地区比较弯曲,在中国新疆和环渤海地区500 hPa上分别有一个高度脊和一个高度槽,在蒙古国、中国内蒙古以及日本以东500 hPa上有显著的位势高度正异常,风场异常与高度场配合较好。在对流层中低层的中国北方,有明显的下沉气流,在中国内蒙古、蒙古国以及日本以东,出现位涡负异常,而在朝鲜半岛附近,则有位涡正异常出现。中国环渤海地区降水偏少,而日本大部分地区降水偏多。在SR模态负异常年,200 hPa急流相对平直且更强,500 hPa的波列特征比正异常年更加显著,在中国内蒙古和蒙古国、朝鲜半岛、日本以东分别有"-、+、-"分布的位势高度场异常。与正异常年相比,位于东亚135°E附近的正异常中心变得显著,在该异常中心的西侧和东侧分别有上升和下沉异常气流,对应在朝鲜半岛和中国东北附近有较大的位涡负异常。在环渤海、朝鲜半岛南部和日本、日本以东洋面上,降水分别出现偏多、偏少和偏多现象。  相似文献   

BCC S2S模式对亚洲夏季风准双周振荡预报评估   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0       下载免费PDF全文

贺铮  徐邦琪  高迎侠 《应用气象学报》2018,29(4):436-448

利用1994-2013年ERA-Interim及NCEP/NCAR再分析数据,对国家气候中心（BCC）次季节到季节尺度模式（S2S）1994-2013年的回报试验数据进行亚洲季风区准双周振荡（QBWO）预报能力评估,并诊断模式预报误差来源。结果表明:BCC S2S模式对QBWO的预报能力随着预报提前时间的增长而降低,9 d后预报技巧明显减弱,其周期、传播特征和强度出现误差;在提前9 d预报中,印度洋地区QBWO对流-环流系统结构松散,信号偏弱,对流向东传播,这与印度洋平均态的预报误差有关,夏季对流平均态低层水汽场在西太平洋和阿拉伯海较强,而东印度洋、孟加拉湾一带偏弱;西北太平洋地区QBWO具有向西北传播的特征,但强度偏弱,可能原因是预报低估了QBWO对流西北侧低层涡度的超前信号,经涡度方程诊断发现,地转涡度平流正贡献微弱,相对涡度平流在对流西北侧引发负涡度,从而减弱了对流西北侧由低层正涡度引发的有利条件。  相似文献   

地形对台风“海燕”暴雨增幅作用的观测与模拟     

郑艳  杨仁勇  程守长  蔡亲波  任福民 《气象科技》2018,46(6):1147-1153

1330号台风"海燕"过程影响海南岛的强降水落区和强降水极值点(毛感乡)均位于南部地区,利用海南省区域加密自动站、三亚多普勒雷达以及0.25°×0.25°ERA-interim再分析资料对强降水成因进行观测分析,应用WRF Ver3.1.1模式对"海燕"进行模拟试验。结果表明:(1)"海燕"从海南岛南部近海北上阶段,其外围的偏东风或偏南风与五指山、吊罗山形成向南开口的"厂"字形地形正交,加密自动站和多普勒雷达在五指山区及"厂"字形地形南侧均探测到多个β中尺度风向辐合切变线或气旋性辐合涡旋,毛感乡附近存在明显的风向辐合,地面辐合中心与小时雨量大值区基本吻合。(2)"厂"字形地形迎风坡的强迫抬升导致气流垂直速度增大,毛感乡附近存在的水平的β中尺度辐合切变和垂直的β中尺度环流,有利于边界层辐合和中高层辐散增强,降水显著增幅。(3)数值模拟的强降水落区和降水极值点与实况基本一致,极值雨量较实况偏小;地形对山区及山脉迎风(背风)坡的雨量增(减)幅作用明显;有地形时,在五指山区及"厂"字形地形南侧容易产生β中尺度风向辐合区。  相似文献   

四川省冰雹分布与地形因子关系分析     

郑飒飒  杨佑洪  刘志  刘晓璐 《气象科技》2018,46(6):1280-1286

利用四川省数字高程模型(DEM)和1970—2014年四川省143个气象站点45年冰雹资料,使用相关分析、逐步回归、数字地形分析和分区统计等方法,研究了四川省冰雹分布与地形高程、坡度、坡向、经纬度、地形起伏度及地形切割深度的关系。研究结果表明:四川省冰雹分布有明显的地理分布特征,地形高程、经度、地形起伏度及西北偏西坡向等地形因子是四川省冰雹分布的主要影响因子。建立冰雹与主要地形影响因子的回归方程,模拟四川省冰雹空间分布,结果显示模拟值与实际值分布趋势一致,但模拟数据整体偏小。  相似文献